I have two possible letters to write at the end of January 2020 when we might, or might not, leave the EU. The first one, presuming a Tory majority government tomorrow morning, will go something like this:
I am wearing black today. I am distraught, angry, and deeply saddened, that a handful of people voting to leave the EU in an unnecessary referendum back in 2016, and again in this general election, can deprive me of my European citizenship. I have been a citizen of the EU (or its predecessor) for over forty years, all of my adult life. I did not choose to renounce this citizenship, it was taken from me. And it seems there is little I can do about it. That is why I am in mourning, wearing black.
What will happen when those who were persuaded by a handful of very rich men, and even fewer very rich women, that we would ‘get Brexit done’ and that the UK would prosper outside the EU, realise they have been lied to? The weaker pound will primarily benefit those with off-shore accounts. The ability to hide money in tax-havens will favour those with millions to hide. Weaker regulation on workers’ rights and environmental standards will only suit multi-national corporations and those who put profits before planet and people. Controlling immigration, whatever that means, will lead to a greater shortage of essential workers and lower tax receipts. Austerity will continue, action on climate change will be down-graded (if it could get any lower) and yet the reality of climate change will continue to threaten – both locally with the effects of sea-level rise on nuclear power stations on the River Severn and the Severn Estuary, and globally. The pressure on populations forced to relocate due to climate change will be destabilising, beyond anything we have seen so far as the result of war.
There will be an opportunity to rebuild civil society from the ground up, more local energy schemes, less economic growth, greater local self-sufficiency (growing local seasonal food if you are lucky enough to have access to a garden or allotment). But it could go the other way. Those who find that the services they depend on continue to deteriorate, and that Brexit if far from ‘done’, may look for scapegoats, encouraged by a largely right-wing media and politicians who are incapable of taking ownership of the forces they have knowingly unleashed. It could get a lot worse before the political tide turns.
For those who believe that a majority government will unite the country I can assure them that I will fight every inch of the way. I will oppose TTIP mark II (i.e. any attempt at a trade deal with the USA), I will hold elected MPs to account for how they vote and for their actions, I will support local community initiatives to build resilience, such as local energy generation, I will oppose attacks on worker’s rights, regressive LGBT… measures, attacks on the environment – including continued Conservative attempts to sell off the Forest of Dean to private investors, and further attempts to privatise our infrastructure, including the rest of the NHS. I will argue for the reversal of disastrous privatisations, such as the forensic science service, the probation service, and most disability and mental health provision, as well as the railways and water. I will oppose the development of nuclear energy and fracking (yes, it is still on the Tory agenda), push for a revolution in renewables and in the ways we think about energy use, with all new houses built – not on flood plains – to passivhaus standards (i.e. carbon neutral). I can see a rise in political activism in the next five years under a Tory government, with the younger folk increasingly active and vocal, supported by all those who care about our planet and communities. The fight for Green candidates in the next County Council elections starts now.
Or I might just share a good bottle of red wine then hide under the duvet for a few days – or both.
